Economics News
Another day, another bail out
First Northern Rock, now Bradford and Bingley. And then there are Ebh Bank in Denmark, Hypo Real Estate in Germany, Glitnir in Iceland and more… As the credit crunch tightens, many governments are being forced into bailing out or supporting failing institutions. This will have an impact on the Government's level of borrowing and the associated costs of servicing this borrowing. Combined with the expected decrease in taxation receipts as a result of a slowing economy it seems inevitable that ...
A government committed to change?
Last week Alastair Darling predicted that Britain is facing its worst economic slowdown for 60 years, and he partially apportioned the blame on the current government. This week the government introduced new loans for some first time buyers, and stamp duty breaks for a handful of properties in order to kick start the housing market. Next week, new steps to help fuel poverty will be announced. For all appearances, the Government seems to be working hard to improve the situation it holds...
That old chesnut: the North/South divide
You may have seen some of the media surrounding the Policy Exchange’s recent report Cities Unlimited. The authors Tim Leunig and James Swaffield have had outraged reactions to what people have seen as their recommended 'abandonment' of northern cities. Delve a little deeper into their report however and it contains food for thought. The authors look at the past development of cities, the government’s regeneration plans and whether these will create the future cities the government wants....
The wider ripples of more expensive groceries
The Centre on International Cooperation have produced a paper on 'Rising Food Prices – Drivers and Implications for Development' as part of the Chatham House Food Supply Project. The paper focuses on the drivers of rising food prices and the implications for international development.
Within this it also raises some very interesting questions around the process of strategic analysis and planning for the future (including scenarios) whilst responding to immediate need. It focuses on the role...
Ethical consumerism and the economy – a bending trend
“A trend is a trend is a trend, until it bends”
Ged Davis from Shell famously said. His comment encapsulates one of the difficulties of strategic analysis, which is the way in which individual drivers relate to each other. A trend can seem to be progressing in a fairly predictable fashion, until a shock or a counter-trend knocks it off course. This is usually what is behind those predictions that were so famously wrong.
I was reminded of this today as I updated our driver on ethical...
The Sub-National Review
Ippr have recently published a discussion paper on the Sub-National Review (SNR). Useful as both a summary and a prompt for further thought and action, the paper outlines the objectives of the SNR, and outlines positive and negative aspects of the decentralisation policy.
The SNR follows a global trend towards decentralisation, and a national move towards regionalisation. It was originally published in July 2007, but has been under consultation and review since, and is currently being...
The ‘green squeeze’
Recently the Foresight team have been discussing what the impact of an economic downturn will be on ethical consumerism. The Government agenda has focused on green issues for some time now (for example the last budget set a target for all public buildings to be carbon neutral by 2019), and this year’s G-8 summit has seen countries pledge to take this even further. More and more individuals and organisations have been embracing the movement; however, in the current economic environment, we...
The latest economic forecast
Every day it seems there is a new story about the credit crunch and its latest victims in the press. Many VCOs already operate in some of the most challenging economic circumstances and with some of the most disadvantaged communities. However, the majority of the VCS has experienced a period of growth over the last decade so I think it’s fair to say that everyone is starting to get a little concerned or at least wondering what the consequences of a slowdown or even a recession might be for...
The Future Face of Enterprise
Anyone else ready to jump on the enterprise bandwagon? Dragons Den is trying to make entrepreneurs of everyone, enterprise has now entered the national curriculum, and everywhere I turn, it seems that organisations within the sector are embracing enterprise with a gusto usually reserved for voting on Britain’s got Talent. The capacitybuilders programme has recently announced a £6million investment in social enterprise, and Gordon Brown aims that ‘enterprise is truly open for all’’.
Rela...
Changing life cycles…
I went to a fascinating event run by the Tomorrow Project last week, looking at people’s changing life cycles and how these affect and are affected by business. A group of employers, employees, academics and futurists spent the day examining three stages of life (early, middle and older), identifying future drivers in each of the life stages, and discussing how business can influence these. The event was held to inform a new book being published next year; however, it made me think about ...
